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What will motoring be like twenty years from now? Corus and the AA asked new car owners and a panel of motor industry experts for their opinions in a nation-wide UK survey at the end of 1999. The survey The first phase of the survey interviewed nine automotive industry experts to define the areas of enquiry for the entire survey and to obtain their opinions in those areas. The main survey consisted of face-to-face interviews with individuals and with focus groups, plus 438 self-completion questionnaires. The respondents were divided into five age groups and five geographical areas.The following is a brief summary of the survey. The complete document is available from Corus. Use of the car Drivers expect more cars on the road, with greater use for leisure, but continued importance in business life.Smarter cars Some of the 2020 scenarios imagined by new car owners are already well-advanced in prototype vehicles.Car owners see telematics mainly in terms of navigation or location systems which give information but leave the driver in control. Automotive experts see such systems in terms of intelligent roads and automated driving, which would take control away from the driver. Drivers did not think that telecommunications and information technology could add much enjoyment to driving; they prefer what is already on offer - traffic information, computer games, TV, and leather seats. Lighter cars Consumers’ contentment with their cars may be curbing thoughts about future development of the car, although they do see that the need to reduce its weight will influence its design.Industry experts acknowledge the advances and responsiveness of steel producers in helping to reduce the weight of cars. They expect further, important innovations in manufacturing and materials, a continued and dominant role for steel, and a significant role for aluminium. Customised cars Drivers expect many different car designs in the future. Automotive experts see this arising through exploitation of a limited manufacturing platform and through the design capabilities of new and existing materials.One of the experts in the survey suggested that cars in 2020 would have interchangeable body panels to reflect lifestyles. Traffic control Consumers and experts alike believe that driving will be more closely controlled in future, including taxes, restrictions on speed and parking, and tolls.Environmental drivers Experts and car owners both see environmental issues in practical terms, e.g. improved fuel economy.Drivers are not convinced that manufacturers can deliver sustained improvements in fuel economy or radical new engine technologies. They see a sound future for the internal combustion engine. Experts see weight reduction aimed at reducing overall emissions as the main object. They have doubts about hybrid engines. The views of men and women Both sexes find their cars easy to drive, but men show signs of frustration with their cars, whereas women describe their cars as liberating. More women than men also find their cars ‘stylish and ‘colourful’.Despite these mainly positive feelings, few respondents feel driving is ‘fun’, ‘luxurious’, or ‘exciting’ - although women generally find driving more fun than men. Regional differences New car owners in the South expect greater use of the car for key tasks in 2020 than do car owners in the survey as a whole.Scottish drivers seem to be enjoying their cars more than other respondents, perhaps because of their lower levels of traffic congestion. One-fifth of them describe their cars as liberating, which is twice the proportion in the whole survey. Practical family tasks are a priority for car owners in Wales. Age groups The youngest age group enjoy their cars, but worry about finances. They have more faith than older drivers have in the capacity for technology to shape the car of the future, but they believe that cars will be more expensive to run in 2020.Older drivers are less excited about their cars than the young. They had few immediate concerns, but had longer-term worries over the future. The cost of motoring Respondents are not optimistic about costs.Most owners are resigned to their vehicles becoming increasingly expensive to own and maintain. Few believe that the car of 2020 would never break down or that it would average 100,000 miles between services. Some experts are concerned that new developments such as less polluting engines will not become widespread because they offer no purchase price benefit for the customer. Safer cars, safer people Britain’s car owners value the safety features of their cars. They think drivers and vulnerable road users will be even safer in this century.Experts agree, but ascribe future influence upon safety more to local authority planners than to car designers. They see legislation, telematics, and environmental issues as having more influence on safety. Early insights Some of the insights that became apparent in 2020 vision are being reflected already in design initiatives.The need for cars to reflect future lifestyles prompted Corus to brief JAM - a multidisciplinary design team, including product designers, architects and visionaries - to envisage what the car may look like in 2020. One of the car designs in Coventry University’s end of year show quite independently arrived at interchangeable body panels of colours and images that would reflect the lifestyle of the driver. Changes The motor car has changed the very nature of people’s lives. And the car itself has changed dramatically since its appearance near the end of the second millennium.Despite the challenges that accompany the car’s enormous benefits, it is change once again that will answer those challenges. Corus is working closely with the car industry and is producing advanced metals and metal solutions to help meet the needs of the industry, consumers and the environment. | |
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